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Tropical Storm ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-29 05:03:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 May 2015 02:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-05-29 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Andres is continuing to intensify. Although the cloud tops near the center have recently warmed, the latest microwave and conventional satellite images are now showing the formation of a ragged eye. An average of the latest intensity estimates is just below hurricane strength, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. The storm appears to be moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt, a bit slower than before. Andres should turn northwestward tomorrow as a result of a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a few days, the ridge restrengthens, which should then steer Andres more toward the west-northwest and west. The latest models have again shifted to the left, apparently due to a stronger ridge than originally predicted, and the official forecast follows the westward trend in the model consensus. Although it seems clear that the cyclone should strengthen over the next couple of days with generally favorable environmental conditions, the amount of shear is a wild card for this forecast. Most of the global models are showing shear values that are higher than ideal for rapid intensification, and the shear is the biggest inhibitor in the latest SHIPS RI index. Andres has been moving left of expected, however, which has been prolonging the lower shear and warmest water conditions. Thus, the new NHC wind speed forecast will remain above most of the guidance, similar to the previous prediction, and it would not be surprising if this forecast is too low for the reasons given above. After 48 hours, Andres should begin to weaken when it encounters cooler waters and a more stable air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 11.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-05-29 04:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 1(19) 1(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-29 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...STRENGTHENING ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu May 28 the center of ANDRES was located near 11.8, -113.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Public Advisory Number 4
2015-05-29 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 ...STRENGTHENING ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 113.3W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 113.3 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Andres is expected to become a hurricane on Friday, with additional strengthening forecast through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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