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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 10
2015-05-30 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 115.9W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 115.9 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-05-30 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301434 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-05-30 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 301434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-05-30 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300837 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres is producing a relatively compact area of strong convection, but the high-level cirrus canopy continues to obscure an eye in infrared satellite imagery. A 0501 UTC AMSU pass showed that the bulk of the deep convection is located within the eastern and southern eyewall--probably the result of 15-20 kt of north- northwesterly shear. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have notched upward just a bit (T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT), and the initial intensity is therefore set at 80 kt. The hurricane is currently located due south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge, resulting in a northwestward motion of 325/6 kt. Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen to the north and northwest of Andres during the next couple of days, which should induce a west-northwestward turn by tonight. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours but then diverges thereafter. The GFS appears to keep Andres as a hurricane for too long after it reaches colder water, and its solution is therefore considered to be a northern outlier. Otherwise, the remainder of the guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the official track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one. Global model fields and SHIPS guidance suggest that the shear affecting Andres will continue for another 18-24 hours. However, the shear doesn't appear quite strong enough to significantly disrupt the circulation, and the thermodynamic environment remains conducive for some further short-term strengthening. After 24 hours, the oceanic heat content falls to zero, so Andres will begin to upwell colder water and start a steady weakening trend that will continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance is in general agreement of this scenario, and the new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the 0300Z forecast, close to the multi-model consensus (ICON). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-30 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat May 30 the center of ANDRES was located near 14.0, -115.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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