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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-05-29 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Andres's intensification trend appears to have ceased for the moment. Infrared satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone is trying to develop a banded-eye structure, but the overall pattern really hasn't improved much since the last advisory. In fact, the Dvorak final-T number from TAFB decreased to 3.5, and remained at 3.5 from SAB, so the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt. The storm is moving a little slower to the west-northwest, or 295/8 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. A slight weakness in the ridge should allow Andres to move northwestward later today through Saturday night. The ridge is forecast to rebuild, however, and the cyclone will likely move west-northwestward and then westward on days 3-5. There has been no apparent shift in the latest track guidance as there had been in previous cycles, and therefore the updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one. The SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that a modest amount of north- northeasterly shear is affecting Andres, which could be the reason for the temporary hiatus in strengthening. SHIPS indicates that the current level of shear should continue for the next 24 hours, and after that the thermodynamic environment becomes gradually less favorable for significant strengthening. Due to these less-than- ideal conditions, the latest intensity guidance shows Andres peaking at a lower intensity compared to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has therefore been lowered a bit. Even with this adjustment, however, the official forecast is still higher than most of the models, especially at 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 12.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-29 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri May 29 the center of ANDRES was located near 12.0, -113.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Public Advisory Number 5
2015-05-29 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290840 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ...ANDRES FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 113.9W ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 113.9 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Andres is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-05-29 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290840 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-05-29 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290840 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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