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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-05-30 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 302036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.9N 118.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 124.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-05-30 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302036 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-30 17:07:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 14:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-05-30 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301435 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres has strengthened a little more this morning. The cloud pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane intermittently appearing in satellite images. Recent microwave data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore, some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though none of the models suggest intensification. After that time, however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler water and into a more stable airmass. These unfavorable conditions should promote a steady weakening trend. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to account for the higher initial intensity. Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. Little change was made to the previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-30 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat May 30 the center of ANDRES was located near 14.5, -115.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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