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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 34
2016-08-31 04:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 310252 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 ...GASTON ONCE AGAIN REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 50.9W ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gaston. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 50.9 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). An east-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected tonight and early Wednesday, but weakening should begin by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 34
2016-08-31 04:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 310252 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GASTON. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.4N 46.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.9N 36.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.7N 29.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.5N 23.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-08-30 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302033 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Gaston appears to have strengthened some more. The hurricane has been maintaining a large and well-defined eye with mesovorticies within it. In addition, a ring of deep convection surrounds the eye with little evidence of dry slots. The Dvorak intensity estimates have increased from both TAFB and SAB, and they support raising the initial wind speed a little more to 95 kt. Gaston is likely to maintain this intensity, or perhaps strengthen a little more, in the short term while it remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. The global models indicate that westerly shear should increase over Gaston on Wednesday, and that should promote a gradual weakening trend. More pronounced weakening is expected when Gaston moves over cool waters in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at 12 h, based on the higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise largely unchanged. The initial motion is now 065/9 kt. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slower forward speed is forecast beyond a few days when a large extratropical low nears Gaston and eventually absorbs it in about 5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in about 3 days. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. The wind radii were modified based on ASCAT and AMSU data from earlier today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 51.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 33.4N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 34.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 36.6N 43.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 38.8N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 40.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2016-08-30 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 302033 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) X(49) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 33
2016-08-30 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 302032 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GASTON. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 51.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 51.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.4N 50.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.6N 43.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 38.8N 31.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 40.0N 26.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 51.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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