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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 35
2016-08-31 10:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 310850 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GASTON. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 50.2W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 50.2W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N 48.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 44.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 39.5N 28.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 41.5N 22.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-31 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:54:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:52:32 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-08-31 04:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 310253 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Gaston's satellite presentation has continued to improve, with a large clear eye and cloud tops colder than -60C completely surrounding the center. Dvorak intensity estimates have risen to T5.5 from TAFB and SAB and are a little higher from the objective ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 105 kt, making Gaston a major hurricane again. Gaston is expected to remain over waters warmer than 26C for at least the next 36 hours. In addition, vertical shear is not expected to increase any further than what is already affecting the system. Therefore, Gaston should be able to at least maintain its intensity in the short term, but weakening is likely to commence by 24 hours. Due to cooler waters, a rather fast weakening trend is expected after 36 hours, with Gaston likely to weaken to a tropical storm between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is now expected to become post-tropical by day 4 since it will be difficult for it to maintain organized, deep convection over cold water, and it should become absorbed by another extratropical cyclone by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the ICON intensity consensus for the entire forecast period. The initial motion is 070/9 kt. Gaston is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which should cause it to accelerate toward the east-northeast during the next couple of days. Some reduction in speed is then forecast to start by day 3 once Gaston begins to interact with the separate extratropical cyclone. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes were needed from the previous NHC track forecast. The updated NHC forecast continues to show a threat to the Azores in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 32.9N 50.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 35.4N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 37.9N 36.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 38.7N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 40.5N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2016-08-31 04:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 310252 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 1(43) X(43) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-31 04:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON ONCE AGAIN REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30 the center of GASTON was located near 32.9, -50.9 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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