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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-30 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 30 the center of GASTON was located near 32.6, -51.9 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 33
2016-08-30 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 302032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 ...GASTON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 51.9W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1445 MI...2330 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores Islands should monitor the progress of Gaston. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 51.9 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-30 17:14:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 14:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 15:08:41 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-08-30 16:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301439 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Microwave satellite images indicate that Gaston has completed an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye is better defined than it was overnight and it has contracted some. In addition, the convective pattern has gained symmetry, and dry slots that were apparent overnight are no longer evident. The initial intensity is increased a little to 90 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification of 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and slightly higher numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so while Gaston remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into an atmosphere of increasing shear and dry air. These conditions should cause a steady weakening trend likely beginning on Wednesday night or Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged otherwise. This forecast is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is now 060/7 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Gaston should cause the hurricane to become more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. As a result, Gaston will likely accelerate east-northeastward during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a large extratropical low pressure area will approach Gaston and it should cause the hurricane to turn to the northeast and slow down. The NHC track forecast is a bit slower than the previous one at the longer range points, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 32.2N 52.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 32.8N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 34.1N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 35.9N 45.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 37.6N 41.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 39.0N 32.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 39.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 42.0N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2016-08-30 16:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 301438 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 12(52) 2(54) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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