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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 32
2016-08-30 16:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 301438 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 52.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 52.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.8N 51.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.0N 32.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.5N 28.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 42.0N 24.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 52.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-30 16:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 30 the center of GASTON was located near 32.2, -52.9 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 32
2016-08-30 16:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 ...GASTON RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 52.9W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 52.9 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-30 11:14:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 08:50:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 09:08:40 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-08-30 10:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300848 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Gaston is completing an eyewall replacement cycle and currently features a well-defined 35 n mi wide eye. The convective clouds have eroded somewhat west of the eye since the last advisory, and the various subjective and objective intensity estimates have also decreased. The initial intensity is thus lowered to 85 kt. The initial motion is now 055/5. A mid- to upper-level trough currently seen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is expected to approach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that should cause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. As a result, Gaston should accelerate generally east-northeastward through 72 hours. At 96 hours, a building ridge southwest of Gaston may cause a more easterly motion as the cyclone approaches the Azores Islands. This should be followed by a northeastward turn by 120 hours as a second mid-latitude trough approaches the tropical cyclone. The track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, although the model spread increases after 72 hours. The new forecast track is changed little from the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The intensity guidance suggests that little change in strength is likely for the next 36-48 hours as Gaston moves over relatively warm water in a light or moderate westerly shear environment. After that time, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause a steady decay. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 32.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 32.4N 52.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 33.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 35.0N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 36.8N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 39.5N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 39.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 42.5N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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