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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-08-30 10:46:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 300846 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 21(54) 1(55) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-30 10:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 30 the center of GASTON was located near 32.0, -54.0 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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at2al072016
Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-08-30 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300234 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 The satellite presentation of Gaston has not changed much during the last several hours. The eye is ragged-looking in infrared satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that there are some signs of a double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Gaston will likely change little in strength during the next couple of days while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, fluctuations in strength are possible if the cyclone continues to undergo an eyewall replacement. Beyond a couple of days, steady weakening is anticipated when the hurricane moves over cooler waters and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one. Gaston has turned northeastward and is moving a bit faster, with the initial motion estimated to be 045/5 kt. A trough currently seen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is expected to approach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that should cause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This should result in Gaston turning east-northeastward on Tuesday with a steady increase in forward speed during the next few days. The model guidance has shifted a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 31.6N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 32.1N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 32.8N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 34.0N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 35.7N 45.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 39.0N 36.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 41.0N 24.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-30 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:33:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:32:36 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-08-30 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 300232 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 3(45) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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