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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)

2016-08-29 10:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GASTON DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 29 the center of GASTON was located near 30.8, -55.2 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 27

2016-08-29 10:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 ...GASTON DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 55.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is currently drifting northward. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today or tonight, and an east-northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 27

2016-08-29 10:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 290855 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 150SE 150SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.5N 50.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 38.5N 30.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 26

2016-08-29 04:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290250 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 Gaston remains a well organized hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the eye remains quite distinct with a symmetric ring of deep convection around it. The upper-level outflow is well established both to the west and the east of the system. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 5.5/102 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 105 kt. Gaston has not moved very little during the last several hours. A continued slow and likely erratic northward motion is forecast overnight and Monday while Gaston remains in weak steering currents caused by a blocking mid-level ridge to its northwest. A trough that is currently over eastern Canada is expected to dampen by the time it nears Gaston, but it should be strong enough to erode the ridge and allow the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern change should result in Gaston's turning east-northeastward in about 24 hours, with the cyclone continuing in that direction through the remainder of the forecast period. The model guidance remains tightly packed, and little change was made to the previous NHC track prediction. The atmospheric conditions suggest that Gaston could maintain its strength for the next day or so, however, given the expected slow motion of the cyclone there is some chance that cold water upwelling would counteract that. Beyond that time, the hurricane is likely to encounter an environment of increasing shear, drier air, and cooler water. Given these expected conditions, the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday. This prediction is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 30.6N 55.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 30.9N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 31.4N 54.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 32.1N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 37.4N 38.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 37.7N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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