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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 13

2016-08-25 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 252037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 45.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 45.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 47.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.8N 57.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 34.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-08-25 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251440 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 The satellite presentation of Gaston has degraded some since the previous advisory, with deep convection bursting northeast of the center due to about 25 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. An ASCAT-B pass from 1212 UTC was helpful in locating the center and showed peak winds of around 55 kt, which support an intensity of 60 kt for this advisory, a little above the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt. The strong shear is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours until Gaston moves poleward of an upper-level low currently located to its west. Given the shear and SSTs around 27-28C, little change in intensity, or perhaps some slight weakening, is expected in the first 24 hours. After that time, the shear decreases and Gaston moves over SSTs of 29-30C, which should allow for strengthening through the rest of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one later in the period and is close to the SHIPS model and the IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 315/15. Gaston should continue moving quickly northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours around a mid-level ridge centered to its northeast. Ridging then builds westward to the north of the tropical cyclone, leading to a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest in 48 hours. Late in the period, Gaston will turn poleward into a weakness along 60W and then begin to recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance agrees on this general scenario, however, there are some differences in the timing and sharpness of recurvature. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a broader turn, while the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL show a sharper turn on the right side of the guidance. Given the uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains near the previous one in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. The initial and forecast 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted based on data from the ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 20.4N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 22.1N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 24.4N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 27.1N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 29.4N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)

2016-08-25 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GASTON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 25 the center of GASTON was located near 20.4, -44.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 12

2016-08-25 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 ...GASTON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 44.4W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 44.4 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and some additional weakening is possible today. However, some re-strengthening is expected to begin Friday night, and Gaston could become a hurricane again on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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