je.st
news
Tag: gaston
Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-08-25 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 251438 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-08-25 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.1N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.0N 50.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.1N 53.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.4N 56.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 31.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-25 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 08:36:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 08:34:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
gaston
hurricane graphics
Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-25 10:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250834 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016 For much of yesterday afternoon and evening, the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft flew a mission through Gaston. On the aircraft's last pass through the storm, it released a dropsonde at 0243 UTC that measured a mean boundary layer wind of 80 kt and an average wind of 77 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding near the center of the cyclone. These numbers both support an intensity of 65 kt, and consequently Gaston was upgraded to a hurricane. The sonde reported a minimum pressure of 995 mb with a 69-kt surface wind, which equates to a central pressure of about 988 mb. Despite Gaston becoming a hurricane, microwave data indicate that the cyclone is tilted due to 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next 12-24 hours when Gaston moves around the eastern side of an upper-level low, and as a result, the hurricane is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm later today. The shear is then forecast to subside in about 48 hours, and with sea surface temperatures expected to increase, Gaston is likely to reintensify during the latter part of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours primarily to account for the higher initial intensity. After 48 hours, the official forecast is unchanged and closely follows the SHIPS model and the ICON intensity consensus. Gaston continues to move northwestward, or 310 degrees at 15 kt, along the southwestern edge of a mid-tropospheric high. A fairly quick northwestward motion should continue for the next 36 hours, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected by 48 hours when Gaston moves around the north side of the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. Gaston is then expected to recurve toward the north-northeast by day 5 as it moves through a break in the ridge and toward the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in agreement on this general scenario, although the ECMWF model is a little bit slower and to the east of the other models, showing a sharper turn by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is therefore a little east of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5 and lies closest to the HWRF and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 19.5N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 21.1N 44.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.4N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 25.3N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 26.7N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 29.1N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 31.0N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 32.5N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-25 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 250834 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] next »