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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-10-13 16:30:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 131430 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-13 10:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 08:33:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 08:31:48 GMT
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octave
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-13 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN... AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN PREDICTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-10-13 10:31:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 130830 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 6 14 32 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 16 29 36 44 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 93 75 58 46 24 18 NA HURRICANE 2 7 7 5 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 7 4 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 31 3(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-13 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 the center of OCTAVE was located near 17.1, -111.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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