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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 9

2013-10-15 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 112.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 112.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics

2013-10-15 01:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2013 23:33:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2013 21:06:45 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)

2013-10-15 01:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 the center of OCTAVE was located near 24.6, -113.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 8A

2013-10-15 01:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142333 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 500 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 113.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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