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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-10-14 22:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-14 22:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 the center of OCTAVE was located near 24.1, -113.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 8
2013-10-14 22:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 ...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 113.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE MOUNTAIN STATION SIERRA LAGUNA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 85 MPH...137 KM/H AT AN ALTITUDE OF 6400 FT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-10-14 22:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 142044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 113.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 113.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-10-14 22:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 142044 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 14 30 33 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 29 55 47 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 31 22 28 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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