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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 9A
2013-10-15 07:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150531 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 ...OCTAVE WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 112.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SEA OF CORTES ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OCTAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-15 05:10:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 02:36:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 03:06:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-15 04:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150235 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES LAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-10-15 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 13 25 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 43 40 33 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 54 45 39 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X 2 4 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 3 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 25 9(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) LORETO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.1, -112.5 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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