je.st
news
Tag: octave
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-14 10:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-14 10:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 the center of OCTAVE was located near 21.6, -113.9 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
octave
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 6
2013-10-14 10:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140849 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 ...OCTAVE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 113.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY OCTAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-10-14 10:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140848 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 8 19 30 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 42 47 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 49 33 26 NA NA NA HURRICANE 3 2 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 2 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-10-14 10:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140848 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0900 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »