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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-14 05:11:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2013 02:34:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2013 03:06:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-14 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 the center of OCTAVE was located near 20.6, -113.7 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 5
2013-10-14 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 ...OCTAVE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 113.7W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ARE FORECAST BY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY AND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER THAT DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-10-14 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 18 29 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 29 46 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 63 34 26 NA NA NA HURRICANE 6 4 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 4 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-10-14 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 0300 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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