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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C... AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX- WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 7

2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141443 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 ...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 113.7W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. A FISHING VESSEL JUST EAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 45 MPH...75 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY OCTAVE ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141443 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 9 21 27 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 45 47 41 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 45 31 30 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 7

2013-10-14 16:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141442 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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