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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
2019-10-18 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 20:34:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 21:31:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-18 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery. With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt. A new small burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase substantially. Either way, dry air and increasing shear are expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next 24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the end of the forecast period. Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt. This motion is likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids. However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on exactly where Octave will end up. Fortunately, it is not likely to be a significant cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-10-18 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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