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Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)

2019-10-18 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OCTAVE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 10.6, -126.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 4

2019-10-18 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 126.6W ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is now moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), but the storm is expected to meander or make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Octave is expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-10-18 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181446 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-10-18 16:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 126.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 126.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.2N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.0N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 11.5N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 12.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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