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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 the center of OCTAVE was located near 26.9, -109.4 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
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cyclone
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 12
2013-10-15 22:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 ...OCTAVE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 109.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-10-15 22:38:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152038 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 109.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 109.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-15 17:08:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 14:37:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 15:04:46 GMT
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tropical
depression
octave
Tropical Depression OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151436 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 8 30 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 77 55 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 15 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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