je.st
news
Tag: octave
Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 984 WTPZ23 KNHC 190836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
2019-10-19 04:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:34:09 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
octave
Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low, occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback. Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON) forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600 miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-19 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 11.5, -126.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
octave
Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 126.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to meander for the next several days, and little net movement is anticipated. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] next »