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Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-18 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 11.0, -126.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-18 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 126.6W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but the storm is expected to meander or make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Octave could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-10-18 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
2019-10-18 16:48:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:48:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:48:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-18 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 A 0941 UTC GCOM microwave overpass was instrumental in showing that Octave's center is located to the east of the main convective mass, and also well to the east of a more notable mid-level circulation. Cloud tops have warmed during the past few hours, but the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt based on ASCAT data from overnight. The microwave data and recent conventional imagery show that Octave is at least partially separating from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial motion estimate is now slowly northward, or 360/2 kt. Any additional northward progress is likely to be hindered in 24-36 hours due to the push of low-level northerly winds in the wake of a trough which is dropping southward over the Pacific. After that push, there is some difference between the models on whether Octave moves eastward or westward, so the NHC forecast continues to show a meandering or slow looping motion during the 5-day forecast period. With Octave now moving out of the ITCZ, low-level dry air to the west is wrapping into the cyclone's circulation, which is likely causing the recent waning of convection. SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that mid-level relative humidity is currently 40-50 percent, and these values are expected to decrease to 30 percent or lower in about 48 hours. This decrease in moisture will also coincide with an increase in southeasterly shear, and both factors will likely contribute to a decrease in intensity--and a loss of tropical cyclone status--during the next couple of days. The new NHC forecast closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids and shows weakening during the next day or two, with Octave likely to degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours. The low is expected to linger for several more days after that, but the environment does not appear conducive for regeneration into a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.6N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 11.2N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 11.0N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 11.5N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 12.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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