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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-18 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight, but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt. Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of 270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about 100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3. The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time 20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72 hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 9.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-18 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-18 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT BEGINS TO MEANDER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 9.9, -127.1 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-18 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT BEGINS TO MEANDER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 127.1W ABOUT 1450 MI...2330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 127.1 West. Octave is drifting west near 1 mph (2 km/h). The tropical storm is expected to meander with little net movement for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Weakening is expected to begin early Saturday, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-18 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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