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Remnants of ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-08-29 15:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 291330 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 1330Z THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-29 13:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 11:58:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 18A
2015-08-29 13:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291154 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...ERIKA APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 75.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HOLGUIN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was relocated near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Sunday. On the forecast track Erika or its remnants will continue to move near or over portions of eastern Cuba today and move near central Cuba tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Surface observations from Cuba and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Erika is degenerating to a trough of low pressure. If subsequent data confirm this, advisories will be discontinued later this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from Cuba is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-29 11:14:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN HAITI... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 the center of ERIKA was located near 19.1, -75.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Update Statement
2015-08-29 11:14:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT65 KNHC 290914 TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 515 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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