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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 14
2015-08-28 10:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 67.7W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Isla Saona. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the north and east of the center. A Weatherflow station in Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, recently reported a wind of 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions currently affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-08-28 10:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 280845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 6(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 5(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 4(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 4(27) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 4(30) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 2(32) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) 1(36) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) 1(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) 1(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 2(30) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 3(31) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 4(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 5(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 6(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 4(24) 1(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) 1(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 8(35) 1(36) 1(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND TURK 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 54(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 29 25(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SANTO DOMINGO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-08-28 10:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF ISLA SAONA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 67.7W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 67.7W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 69.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 72.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 67.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 07:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 05:47:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:06:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 13A
2015-08-28 07:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280546 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 66.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Central Bahamas Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several hours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at Yabucoa Harbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the Virgin Islands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the next several hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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