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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-29 11:12:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:12:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 18
2015-08-29 10:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN HAITI... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Sunday. On the forecast track the center of Erika will move near over portions of eastern Cuba later today and move across central Cuba tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Erika is expected to weaken to a tropical depression today as it moves over land. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure today while it moves over the high terrain of eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-08-29 10:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290854 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Erika remains very disorganized with the deep convection still displaced well east and southeast of the apparent center. The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB, and these winds are likely occurring well east and northeast of the center. Erika will have to contend with land interaction and strong shear for the next day or so, which should result in the cyclone weakening to a depression later today, if not dissipating entirely. Assuming Erika survives the next 24 hours, some restrengthening is possible over the Gulf of Mexico in a less hostile environment. The low-confidence NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and below the latest intensity consensus. The disorganized center of Erika has been difficult to locate, but my best estimate of the initial motion is 290/17, with the center moving a little to the left of the previous forecast track. Erika should gradually turn toward the northwest and decelerate during the next 36 to 48 hours as it moves around the edge of the subtropical ridge. After that time a northward motion at an even slower forward speed is expected. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the left, especially during the first 48 hours, due to the initial position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 48 hours and is between the consensus and the GFS model after that time. Given the uncertainty in the initial position and motion, and whether Erika even has a closed center, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains low. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce flash floods and mudslides. Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern Florida following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until later today to see if the circulation of Erika has survived its interaction with Hispaniola. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning. There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.1N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.3N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.3N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 24.0N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 31.0N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-08-29 10:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290851 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N 80.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 82.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-08-29 10:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 290851 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 2(24) 1(25) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 2(21) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 2(19) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) 1(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 7 31(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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