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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-08-28 16:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 14A
2015-08-28 14:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 CORRECTED DISTANCE TO SANTO DOMINGO IN TABLE ...CENTER OF ERIKA APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 68.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 68.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the north and east of the center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently approaching Erika. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions currently affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 13:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 11:53:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 09:06:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:46:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 08:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-08-28 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280850 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 Erika remains disorganized, with the deep convection decreasing in coverage and intensity to the east of the estimated center position during the past few hours. Despite this, the cyclone continues to produce a large area of tropical storm force winds east of the center, and the initial intensity of 45 kt and central pressure of 1006 mb are based on recent surface observations from Puerto Rico. The center of Erika continues to be rather disorganized, and the initial position and motion of 290/15 are based on a blend of satellite imagery and continuity. While the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, the initial position and motion and an overall weaker depiction of Erika in the global models have resulted in a leftward shift in the track guidance this cycle and an increase in the forward speed. A west-northwestward motion is expected for the first couple of days as Erika moves around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves around the western edge of the ridge. The new NHC track is to the left of and faster than the previous advisory and is near the multi model consensus through 36 hours. After that time, the NHC track is east of almost all the guidance out of respect to continuity. Needless to say, confidence in the track forecast, especially after 48 hours, remains very low given that the details of the track depend on how much the cyclone recovers from the shear and the effects of land interaction in the short term. Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming that the cyclone survives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is reflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track now takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is shown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the IVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very low. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 25.6N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0600Z 30.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brennan
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