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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 16
2015-08-28 22:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282054 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 71.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next several hours, and be near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. There is a possibility that Erika could dissipate to a trough of low pressure during or after its passage over Hispaniola. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from the Dominican Republic, is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti this evening, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-08-28 22:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282054 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTER ERIKA MOVES OFF OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 71.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 71.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.3N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 19:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 17:38:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 15:06:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-28 19:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 17.7, -70.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 15A
2015-08-28 19:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281737 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 70.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erika has been moving westward near 18 mph (30 km/h) for the past several hours. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to being later this afternoon or tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next few hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic has been reporting wind gusts of 40 mph (64 km/h) for the past few hours. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti this afternoon, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later this afternoon and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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