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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 16A
2015-08-29 01:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282339 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 72.0 ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday, and will be near extreme eastern Cuba or the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday, but there is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. Barahona in the western portion of the Dominican Republic is reporting gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 23:12:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 21:00:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 21:06:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-08-28 22:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282055 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 The low-level center of Erika continues to be be located west of the convection due to the impact of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation has been losing definition during the day and it is now barely closed, at best. However, clusters of strong convection continue in the eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt on the premise that the strong winds observed earlier are still present. The central pressure of 1009 mb is based on observations from the Dominican Republic. Erika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and the initial motion is 280/17. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A generally west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. While the track guidance is generally in good agreement, it should be noted that the guidance has been consistently forecasting a west-northwestward turn that has so far failed to occur. On the other hand, there is still a chance for a center to re-form farther to the north during the passage over Hispaniola. So while the forecast track has been shifted west of the previous advisory, it still lies near the northern edge of the guidance envelope for the first 48 hours to maintain some continuity with the previous forecast. Additional adjustments may be necessary depending on how Erika evolves during the next 12-18 hours. The forecast intensity has been significantly changed to show a much weaker cyclone, with Erika now forecast to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours, followed by some slight intensification at 48 and 72 hours. This represents a compromise between two scenarios. The first is the increasing likelihood that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during the passage over Hispaniola, a scenario supported by the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models. The second acknowledges that the shear is still expected to subside after 36 hours and we're are not quite prepared to rule out tropical storm impacts in Florida. The SHIPS and LGEM support this possibility. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left of Erika after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 17.9N 71.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.3N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 22.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1800Z 24.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 29.0N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-08-28 22:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 282055 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 2(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 2(21) 1(22) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) 2(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 2(21) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 2(20) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LES CAYES 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CAPE BEATA 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PUERTO PLATA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-28 22:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 17.9, -71.2 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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