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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-08-29 04:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290248 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the cyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported in Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given that the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity has been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile wind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the cyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is indicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction with land. However, if it survives, there is a very small opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the environment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone. The initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt. It seems that Erika has changed very little in forward speed since its formation. However, the cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days. Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is anticipated. There is not much track guidance available tonight since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model fields. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce flash floods and mudslides. We must emphasize that although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-29 04:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA... ...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 18.5, -72.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 17
2015-08-29 04:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA... ...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of Hispaniola. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 72.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression on Saturday. There is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-08-29 04:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 290247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 3(27) 1(28) 1(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 2(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 3(20) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 17 30(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) LES CAYES 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-08-29 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290247 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTER ERIKA MOVES OFF OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 72.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 72.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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