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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-28 17:12:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 14:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 15:06:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-08-28 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of 40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The central pressure based on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb. Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion is a somewhat more confident 285/16. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of Erika. The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through 96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the previous track. Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This, combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low confidence. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.7N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-28 16:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ERIKA NOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 17.7, -69.4 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-08-28 16:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 281444 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 3(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 3(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 2(26) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 4(27) 2(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 4(34) 1(35) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 3(33) 1(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 3(28) 1(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 7(33) 1(34) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 2(33) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 2(30) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 4(29) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 3(21) 2(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 55 6(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PUERTO PLATA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) SANTO DOMINGO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 15
2015-08-28 16:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015 ...CENTER OF ERIKA NOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 69.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U. S. Virgin Islands. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions affecting Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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