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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-05-15 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1612 UTC SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAD WINDS VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THAT PASS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 35 KT. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO HELPED TO BETTER LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ALVIN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE PACIFIC...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPLIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONGER GFS AND GFDL SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE WEAKER ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT DOES FAVOR THE SCENARIO OF A STRONGER NORTHWESTWARD-TURNING STORM. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ALVIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ALVIN GETTING STRONGER THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALVIN IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30.5C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. FASTER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX NOW SHOWS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY IN 4 TO 5 DAYS MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 8.7N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.3N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 10.6N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 11.1N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 12.5N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 15.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Advisory GIS Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
2013-05-15 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
GIS Data last updated Wed, 15 May 2013 20:36:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Public Advisory Number 2
2013-05-15 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 105.1W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST. ALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALVIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-05-15 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 152036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 2100 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 X X 2 18 TROP DEPRESSION 11 8 5 2 2 14 47 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 53 37 36 66 34 HURRICANE 1 15 41 60 62 19 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 13 33 38 43 16 1 HUR CAT 2 X 2 6 15 14 2 X HUR CAT 3 X X 2 6 5 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 75KT 60KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 22(22) 36(58) 7(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
KCC invites community on trip to see Alvin Ailey Dance Theater
2013-03-11 23:47:26| Food - Topix.net
Kellogg Community Colleges Student Life office invites students and community members alike to participate in a field trip to Chicago to see performances by the nationally acclaimed Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater on Saturday, March 16.
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