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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-06-26 16:48:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 261448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-06-26 16:48:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 261448 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 7( 7) 40(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

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Templeton Prize 2017 Alvin Plantinga

2017-04-26 23:14:26| Commercial Real Estate Loans & Investment Sales

Alvin Plantinga was awarded this year’s Templeton Prize — the so-called “Nobel of Religion” that “honors a living person who has made an exceptional contribution to affirming life’s spiritual dimension.” For a glimpse at Plantinga’s understanding of the calling of the Christian philosopher, consider his essay, “Letter to a Young Philosopher.”, publised in 2011 Comment Magazine. …

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