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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-26 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 20:33:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 21:24:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-06-26 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 295 WTPZ41 KNHC 262031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Alvin is a small tropical storm as indicated by a recent scatterometer pass that showed tropical storm force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. This scatterometer data as well as an average of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Alvin has continued to move south of due west throughout the day, and the initial motion estimate remains 260/12 kt. Through 24 hours, little change was made to the NHC forecast track, as the cyclone is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge through dissipation. The latest forecast track is on the southern edge of the guidance envelope through 36 hours, and has been shifted a little northward closer to the consensus aids from 48 to 72 hours. Although dry air has been trying to entrain into the storm's circulation today, deep convection continues to develop over the center. Some additional strengthening is still expected through 24 hours as the cyclone moves over warm SSTs in a low-shear and sufficiently moist environment. After 36 hours, the forecast track takes Alvin over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and higher-shear environment. This should result in steady weakening, with the cyclone likely becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, and dissipating by 96 hours. The new NHC forecast is near or a little below the latest dynamical and consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 14.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.0N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 18.3N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brennan
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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-06-26 22:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 262031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 36(36) 28(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 115W 50 X 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-26 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 the center of Alvin was located near 14.3, -110.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 5
2019-06-26 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 262031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 ...ALVIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 110.3W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 110.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected by Thursday night, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brennan
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