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Tropical Storm ALVIN Public Advisory Number 6

2013-05-16 22:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 ...ALVIN STRUGGLING... ...MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 109.1W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. ALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ALVIN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT ANY TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 6

2013-05-16 22:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162040 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 2100 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 109.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 109.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 13.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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