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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-05-16 10:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160856 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.2N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 14.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Public Advisory Number 4
2013-05-16 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160856 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 200 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 ...ALVIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.1N 106.9W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ALVIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-05-16 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 200 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING VERY DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...SHOW A LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAN A QUICK GLANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE STRONGEST BURST. ASCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LOT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HEADED TOWARD THE CYCLONE...WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THE FLOW ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE CENTER. THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT AN EASY FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SHEAR IN MOST OF THE MODEL FIELDS THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION...ONLY THE GFDL MODEL REALLY SHOWS ALVIN BECOMING ANY MORE THAN A LOW-END CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24H...THEN IS REDUCED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS. A BEVY OF ASCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ALVIN IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER...290/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LESS OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ALVIN...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS OF A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 24H. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.1N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.5N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.2N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 11.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 11.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 14.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Graphics
2013-05-16 05:05:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 02:42:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 03:03:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-05-16 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160247 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 800 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 ALVIN IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE DATA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BAND WRAPPING A LITTLE MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...POSSIBLY THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ALVIN HAS INCREASED FURTHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX AND THEIR HANDLING OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT FEELS THE EFFECT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED EXTENSION OF THE ABOVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE UKMET AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A WEAKER SYSTEM AND A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND HENCE HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LEAN SOMEWHAT MORE ON THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION...PLACING THE TRACK FORECAST SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. GIVEN THE DISPARATE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ALVIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS...LIKELY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATES A NEARLY 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS KEEPS ALVIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNTIL DAYS 4-5...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES ABRUPTLY. THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW ALVIN ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH SOONER...WHICH WOULD STIFLE ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS...DYNAMICAL...AND FSSE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.0N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 10.2N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 10.9N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 11.6N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 13.0N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.7N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 16.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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