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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-05-16 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 800 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013 ALVIN APPEARS TO HAVE DEGRADED IN STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY SEPARATING FROM THE ITCZ...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LIKELY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALVIN COULD BE A BIT WEAKER. ALTHOUGH THE HISTORICALLY TWO BEST GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE HAD SOME DISAGREEMENT ON ALVIN...EACH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN RIGHT TO SOME DEGREE. THE GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON GENESIS...BUT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT THAT ALVIN WOULD NOT STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT 15 TO 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AFFECT ALVIN DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND NEITHER OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MORE PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 3...AND ALVIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL DIRECTION TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SPEED DISCREPANCY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.9N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 10.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 11.2N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 11.6N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-05-16 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161431 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 1500 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 107.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 107.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Graphics
2013-05-16 11:05:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 08:59:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 09:03:33 GMT
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alvin
Tropical Storm ALVIN Advisory GIS Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
2013-05-16 10:58:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 08:58:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-05-16 10:57:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160856 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 12 40 TROP DEPRESSION 3 2 3 4 9 39 45 TROPICAL STORM 91 59 45 47 60 45 15 HURRICANE 6 38 52 49 29 3 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 34 39 35 25 3 X HUR CAT 2 X 4 9 10 4 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 4 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 40KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 11 62(73) 5(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 35(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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