je.st
news
Tag: alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-06-26 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 262030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 112.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-06-26 16:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261453 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Visible and passive microwave imagery this morning indicate that the center of the tropical cyclone is located farther south than previously estimated, possibly due to a reformation of the center. The center of the cyclone is now embedded near the deepest inner- core convection, and some overall improvement in the convective pattern is evident. Satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Alvin's formation marks the 3rd latest date of the development of the first named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the satellite era (since 1966). Alvin has turned a little south of due west and the initial motion estimate is 260/12 kt. The new NHC forecast track over the first couple of days has been adjusted southward, in large part due to the more southerly reformation of the center. Despite this, the overall track forecast philosophy has not changed. Alvin is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There remains about a 24-36 hour window for some additional strengthening to occur over warm SSTs in a low-shear and sufficiently moist environment. This environment, combined with the improving structure of the storm, supports raising the intensity forecast a little in the near term. The new NHC forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical models and the intensity consensus. After 36 hours, the forecast track takes Alvin over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and higher-shear environment. This should result in steady weakening, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection by 72 hours, and dissipating by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-26 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 14:53:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2019 14:53:15 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
alvin
Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-26 16:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 the center of Alvin was located near 14.7, -109.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 4
2019-06-26 16:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 261451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 ...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Alvin is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brennan
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »