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Tropical Storm ALVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2013-05-16 04:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160242 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 4 26 TROP DEPRESSION 3 2 1 1 2 21 49 TROPICAL STORM 91 59 34 20 38 64 24 HURRICANE 6 38 64 80 60 11 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 34 44 42 42 10 1 HUR CAT 2 X 4 14 23 13 1 X HUR CAT 3 X 1 5 12 4 X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 3 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 75KT 55KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CLIPPERTON IS 34 3 64(67) 13(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 29(29) 14(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm ALVIN Public Advisory Number 3

2013-05-16 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160242 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 800 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 ...ALVIN STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.0N 105.9W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. ALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number public storm advisory

Tropical Storm ALVIN Advisory GIS Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)

2013-05-16 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 May 2013 02:42:07 GMT

Tags: track storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-05-16 04:41:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.0N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical