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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-28 07:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 05:39:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 03:22:33 GMT
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-28 04:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280251 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time, decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-28 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 02:51:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 03:22:33 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE CORE OF ENRIQUE PASSES JUST OFFSHORE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 19.6, -106.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 12
2021-06-28 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280250 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE CORE OF ENRIQUE PASSES JUST OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Enrique. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected tonight and Monday., and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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