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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 11

2021-06-27 22:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272053 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 105.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-27 19:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 18.8, -105.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 10A

2021-06-27 19:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271741 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 105.7W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique has moved a little east of north over the past few hours near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin by tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, should remain just offshore of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Enrique is then expected to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Stewart

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