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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-06-28 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280250 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 8(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 70 19(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLAS MARIAS 50 6 29(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLAS MARIAS 64 1 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 4 10(14) 11(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 8 8(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 55 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) P VALLARTA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-06-28 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280250 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 360SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-28 01:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 23:49:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 21:22:40 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-28 01:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 19.4, -105.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-06-28 01:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 559 WTPZ35 KNHC 272349 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 ...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 105.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Enrique. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported at Manzanillo, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and will continue to spread northwestward through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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