je.st
news
Tag: enrique
Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-27 23:02:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 the center of Enrique was located near 19.0, -105.7 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
enrique
Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 11
2021-06-27 23:02:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 333 WTPZ35 KNHC 272101 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Corrected headline ...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.7W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken through early this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-27 22:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272057 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore. Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This northwestward motion should then continue until the system dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Enrique Graphics
2021-06-27 22:55:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 20:55:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jun 2021 21:22:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
enrique
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-06-27 22:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272053 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 5(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 6(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 44 36(80) 5(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ISLAS MARIAS 50 3 13(16) 8(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 4 8(12) 7(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAN BLAS 34 9 10(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 34 73 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) P VALLARTA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »