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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-06-23 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231448 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-23 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 the center of THREE-E was located near 11.8, -103.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-06-23 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231448 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 103.8W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-06-23 16:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231448 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 1 1 1 11 28 TROP DEPRESSION 32 14 8 3 8 39 49 TROPICAL STORM 66 75 62 46 60 47 23 HURRICANE 1 10 29 50 31 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 24 35 26 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 4 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 21(41) 1(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 6(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-06-23 16:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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