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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-06-11 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110243 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 99.7W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 99.7W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 99.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.7N 99.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.5N 99.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-06-11 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110243 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 14(26) 5(31) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 17(34) 3(37) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 13(35) 13(48) 2(50) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 14(25) 18(43) 11(54) 2(56) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 1(18) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 1(28) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 5(24) 1(25) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2015-06-10 23:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jun 2015 20:37:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jun 2015 21:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-06-10 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with the low pressure system located southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become sufficiently well organized to designate the formation of a tropical depression. Therefore, advisories are being initiated at this time. The cyclone should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters for the next several days, so steady strengthening seems to be a good bet. The official wind speed forecast is generally above the intensity model consensus. There is significant uncertainty in the longer range intensity forecast, depending on how much the system interacts with land. Center fixes have had a fair amount of scatter, and my best estimate of the initial motion is 315/8 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is likely to respond to a mid-level weakness over the Gulf of Mexico by turning northward and north-northeastward. Later in the forecast period, a mid-level ridge to the northwest is expected to cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest and move parallel the coast. The GFS model takes the system close to the coast in 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFDL model tracks keep the cyclone offshore and are much farther to the west than the GFS solution. As a compromise, the official track forecast is close to the model consensus TVCN albeit not as far west as TVCN by 120 hours. Given the large divergence of the model tracks, this is a low confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 13.4N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 14.5N 99.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 15.5N 99.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-10 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 the center of THREE-E was located near 12.4, -98.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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