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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-06-09 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 09 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 092037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC SAT JUN 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 1(19) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 41(42) 46(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) 1(91) 15N 105W 50 X 5( 5) 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 5(23) 1(24) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 4(22) 1(23) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 17(28) 7(35) 2(37) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 23(46) 7(53) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 22(45) 7(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 5(20) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-06-09 22:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 09 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 092037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC SAT JUN 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 101.6W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 101.6W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.2N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.3N 104.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-03 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030237 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with multiple curved bands. The estimated center position is near the eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on Monday. The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the center moves over progressively cooler waters. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. Most of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right. There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and is of about average confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2016-07-03 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 02:33:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2016 02:34:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-03 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 2 the center of THREE-E was located near 11.1, -108.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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