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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-06-23 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY ABOUT 120 H. THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032013)

2013-06-23 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 the center of THREE-E was located near 12.0, -103.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression tropical depression

Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 2

2013-06-23 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 103.7W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number public advisory tropical

Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2013-06-23 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number advisory tropical depression