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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-06-11 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 100.2W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 100.2W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2015-06-11 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 02:45:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 02:44:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-06-11 04:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110244 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression Three-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the International Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from the scatterometer. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. The depression is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico. This feature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large mid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north- northeast. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are some important differences in the models. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico. The latest GFS run also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore at 72 hours. The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during this time. After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to build, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still offshore. The new forecast track is west of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is farther from the coast of Mexico. However, there is low confidence in how close the center will actually get to the coast. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours, which favors steady intensification. The intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After that, a combination of northerly shear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of intensification is likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best agreement with the LGEM model after that time. An alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.9N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 14.7N 99.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 15.5N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-11 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 the center of THREE-E was located near 12.9, -99.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-06-11 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110243 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ...DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 99.7W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Thursday, with a slow motion toward the north-northeast expected Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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